State of Trade in the Region Report 2015


The State of Trade in the Region 2015-2016

Sate of the region 2015Trade growth in the Asia-Pacific is expected to post a moderate recovery in 2015 with exports growing at 4.9 percent and imports at 3.8 percent, down from 4.5 percent and 4.0 percent respectively in 2014.




icon State of the Region Report 2015-2016


i Executive Summary

The State of Trade in the Region
Contributed by Patrick Low and Eduardo Pedrosa

  • Future Drivers of Growth
  • Changing Balance between Emerging and Advanced Economies?
    • Figure 1: Asia-Pacific Trade Growth 1990-2019
    • Figure 2: Top Trade Issues APEC Should Address
  • Determinants of Export Performance
    • Figure 3: Determinants of Export Performance
    • Figure 4: Views on the Export Growth over the Next Year
    • Figure 5: Views on Export Growth over the Next 5 Years
  • Has Trade Reached a Peak?
  • Role of Trade in Growth
    • Figure 6: Estimated Change in the Share of Net Exports of GDP from 2000 to 2007
    • Figure 7: Estimated Change in the Share of Net Exports of GDP from 2007 to 2014
    • Figure 8: Has Trade Growth Reached a Peak?
  • Risks to Trade
    • Figure 9: Risks to Trade Growth
    • Figure 10: Views on Major Markets
  • Oil: Slippery Business
      Figure 11: Oil Prices
  • Impediments to Trade
    • Figure 12: Seriousness of Impediments to Trade
    • Figure 13: Seriousness of Regulatory Measures Affecting Service Sectors as an Impediment to Trade
    • Figure 14: Seriousness of Rising Local Content Requirements as in Impediment to Trade
  • Trade and Inclusive Growth
    • Figure 15: Asia-Pacific Views on Trade Policy Issues
    • Figure 16: The Asia-Pacific Needs a New Regional Trade Agreement that Includes All APEC Members
    • Figure 17: Free Trade Agreements Should Include Provisions to Protect Workers and Promote Environmental Protection
  • A New Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement?
  • Limits on the Benefits of Trade
    • Figure 18: Limits on the Benefits of Trade
    • Figure 19: Do supply side constraints limit the benefits of trade for your economy?
    • Figure 20: Do import barriers in your economy hamper participation in global and regional supply chains?
  • Priority Actions for Achieving an FTAAP
    • Figure 21: Priority Actions for Achieving an FTAAP
    • Figure 22: Importance of Capacity Building to Meet the FTAAP Standards
    • Figure 23: Business Views on the Priority Actions for Achieving an FTAAP
  • Utilization of Trade Agreements
    • Figure 24: Reasons for Low Utilization of Trade Agreements

Annex A: Survey Respondents

Annex B: Survey Questions

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Pacific Currents

International cooperation during COVID-19
Sungbae An
Senior Research Fellow, Department of International Macroeconomics and Finance, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)

G20 comes to the fore again
Jorge Heine
Research Professor, Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University; Non-resident senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing

Tackling COVID-19 Together: A Bottom-Up Approach to Trade Policy
Simon J. Evenett
Economics Professor at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland and Global Trade Alert

Drastic measures to stop spread of COVID-19 are necessary
Charles E. Morrison
Adjunct Fellow and Former President of the East-West Center; Former Co-Chair, PECC

International Trade at a Time of Covid-19
Roy Santana
Expert on tariffs and customs issues at the WTO; occasional lecturer

ASEAN-China cooperation in time of COVID-19 pandemic
Jusuf Wanandi
Vice Chair, Board of Trustees, CSIS Foundation; Former Co-Chair of PECC

Preferential Trade Agreements Vs. Multilateralism: In The New Trump-World, Does Canada Face An Impossible Choice?
Judit Fabian
Visiting Researcher, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Ottawa