State of Trade in the Region Report 2015

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The State of Trade in the Region 2015-2016

Sate of the region 2015Trade growth in the Asia-Pacific is expected to post a moderate recovery in 2015 with exports growing at 4.9 percent and imports at 3.8 percent, down from 4.5 percent and 4.0 percent respectively in 2014.

 

 

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Content:

i Executive Summary

The State of Trade in the Region
Contributed by Patrick Low and Eduardo Pedrosa

  • Future Drivers of Growth
  • Changing Balance between Emerging and Advanced Economies?
    • Figure 1: Asia-Pacific Trade Growth 1990-2019
    • Figure 2: Top Trade Issues APEC Should Address
  • Determinants of Export Performance
    • Figure 3: Determinants of Export Performance
    • Figure 4: Views on the Export Growth over the Next Year
    • Figure 5: Views on Export Growth over the Next 5 Years
  • Has Trade Reached a Peak?
  • Role of Trade in Growth
    • Figure 6: Estimated Change in the Share of Net Exports of GDP from 2000 to 2007
    • Figure 7: Estimated Change in the Share of Net Exports of GDP from 2007 to 2014
    • Figure 8: Has Trade Growth Reached a Peak?
  • Risks to Trade
    • Figure 9: Risks to Trade Growth
    • Figure 10: Views on Major Markets
  • Oil: Slippery Business
      Figure 11: Oil Prices
  • Impediments to Trade
    • Figure 12: Seriousness of Impediments to Trade
    • Figure 13: Seriousness of Regulatory Measures Affecting Service Sectors as an Impediment to Trade
    • Figure 14: Seriousness of Rising Local Content Requirements as in Impediment to Trade
  • Trade and Inclusive Growth
    • Figure 15: Asia-Pacific Views on Trade Policy Issues
    • Figure 16: The Asia-Pacific Needs a New Regional Trade Agreement that Includes All APEC Members
    • Figure 17: Free Trade Agreements Should Include Provisions to Protect Workers and Promote Environmental Protection
  • A New Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement?
  • Limits on the Benefits of Trade
    • Figure 18: Limits on the Benefits of Trade
    • Figure 19: Do supply side constraints limit the benefits of trade for your economy?
    • Figure 20: Do import barriers in your economy hamper participation in global and regional supply chains?
  • Priority Actions for Achieving an FTAAP
    • Figure 21: Priority Actions for Achieving an FTAAP
    • Figure 22: Importance of Capacity Building to Meet the FTAAP Standards
    • Figure 23: Business Views on the Priority Actions for Achieving an FTAAP
  • Utilization of Trade Agreements
    • Figure 24: Reasons for Low Utilization of Trade Agreements

Annex A: Survey Respondents

Annex B: Survey Questions

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Discussion Forum

Going It Alone in the Asia-Pacific: Regional Trade Agreements Without the United States
Peter A. Petri (PIIE), Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center), Shujiro Urata (Waseda University) and Fan Zhai (Former Managing Director, China Investment Corporation)


The Linkage between Services and Manufacturing in the US economy
Sherry M. Stephenson, Senior Fellow, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development


Digital DNA: Disruption and the Challenges for Global Governance
Peter F. Cowhey (University of California, San Diego), 
Jonathan D. Aronson (University of Southern California)


Growth in a Time of Change
Pamela Mar, Director of Sustainability, Fung Academy | Fung Group


Why Connectivity is a starting point for real change
Pamela Mar, Director of Sustainability, Fung Academy | Fung Group


The TPP lives on – and Canada should be part of it
Hugh Stephens, Vice-chair, CANCPEC


After the TPP: What’s Next for Canada in Asia?
Hugh Stephens, Vice-chair, CANCPEC