State of the Region Report 2007

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State of the Region 2007-2008


Publications-SOTR-2007-01At the start of 2008, the economic outlook for the Asia Pacific region is more uncertain than it has been since the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis. With the full consequences of the sub-prime loan problem in the United States still playing out, the potential for turbulence in the financial markets to spill over into the real economy remains a serious concern. Notwithstanding these and other risks, the economic outlook for the Asia Pacific region is cautiously optimistic.




Contents


Message from the PECC Chair

Explanation of Terms used in the Report

Executive Summary

1.0 The Asia Pacific Economic Outlook, 2008-09

    • Chart 1: Real GDP Growth
    • Chart 2: CPI Inflation
    • Chart 3: Import Growth
  • Strong Fundamentals Threatened by Financial Market Jitters 
  • Chinese growth led by domestic demand 
    • Chart 4: Export Growth
  • Growing Downside Risks for the Japanese Economy 
  • Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis and Its Impact on Asia 
  • Recovery and Risk in the US Economy
  • Other PECC Economies 
  • China's Role in Asia's Economic Resurgence
    • Chart 6: China's Economy will be larger than the US economy by 2020
    • Chart 7: China's Growing Importance as an Export Market for East Asia


2.0 Regional Challenges

  • Medium and Longer Term Challenges 
  • Environment and energy security 
    • Chart 8: Top Risks to Economic Growth
  • Ten Years After the Crisis
    • Chart 9: East Asian economies today are less vulnerable to a regional economic downturn
    • Chart 10: How would you rate global warming as a risk to the Asia-Pacific economic outlook
    • Chart 11: Tons of CO2 Emitted per US$1 billion GDP
    • Chart 12: Top CO2 Emitters in the World
    • Chart 14: How would you rate high energy prices as a risk to the Asia-Pacific economic outook
    • Chart 15: World Shares of Carbon Emissions and GDP
  • The WTO and its Alternatives 
    • Chart 16: Top 5 Priorities for APEC Leaders
    • Chart 17: How significant is the complexity of tariffs and ROOs caused by the proliferation of PTAs
  • Global Imbalances 
    • Chart 18: Private consumption will be the engine of growth for Asian economies in the next decade 

3.0 Regional Organizations

  • Regionalism and Regionalization 
  • Effectiveness of institutions 
    • Chart 19: How do you rate the following groupings in terms of their effectiveness in political and security dialogue
  • APEC Issues 
    • Chart 20: India's Growing Importance to the Asia-Pacific
    • Chart 21: Asian economies should play a bigger role in the governance of multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and IMF

Annex 1: Forecast Tables

Annex 2: Survey Results

Annex 3: PECC Forecasters Panel

Annex 4: PECC Member Committees

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Discussion Forum

Going It Alone in the Asia-Pacific: Regional Trade Agreements Without the United States
Peter A. Petri (PIIE), Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center), Shujiro Urata (Waseda University) and Fan Zhai (Former Managing Director, China Investment Corporation)


The Linkage between Services and Manufacturing in the US economy
Sherry M. Stephenson, Senior Fellow, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development


Digital DNA: Disruption and the Challenges for Global Governance
Peter F. Cowhey (University of California, San Diego), 
Jonathan D. Aronson (University of Southern California)


Growth in a Time of Change
Pamela Mar, Director of Sustainability, Fung Academy | Fung Group


Why Connectivity is a starting point for real change
Pamela Mar, Director of Sustainability, Fung Academy | Fung Group


The TPP lives on – and Canada should be part of it
Hugh Stephens, Vice-chair, CANCPEC


After the TPP: What’s Next for Canada in Asia?
Hugh Stephens, Vice-chair, CANCPEC

Project Team 2007

Editorial Committee:

Yuen Pau Woo (State of the Region Report Coordinator, President & Co-CEO Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada)

Mark Borthwick (Director, US Asia Pacific Council)

Gary Hawke (Head, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand)

Charles E. Morrison (PECC Chair, President East-West Center, USA)

Jusuf Wanandi (Member, Board of Trustees, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia)

Soogil Young (President, National Strategy Institute, Korea)

Eduardo Pedrosa (Secretary General, PECC International Secretariat)