State of the Region Report 2015

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State of the Region 2015-2016

01The Asia-Pacific is forecast to grow by 3.2 percent in 2015, the lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis, before returning to what has become the 'new normal' growth of around 3.4 to 3.5 percent.

 

 

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icon State of the Region Report 2015-2016


Content:

i Message from the Co-Chairs of PECC

ii Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Structural Reforms As Drivers Of Growth And Inclusion
CONTRIBUTED BY MS. EDITH SCOTT AND PROF. MICHAEL ENRIGHT, ENRIGHT, SCOTT & ASSOCIATES SINGAPORE WITH ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM MEMBERS OF PECC

    • Figure 1.1: Forecast for Asia-Pacific Economic Growth
    • Figure 1.2: Forecast for Asia-Pacific Inflation
    • Figure 1.3: Forecast for Export Growth
    • Figure 1.4: Forecast for Import Growth
  • STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO REGIONAL ECONOMIES
    • Figure 1.5: Estimated Change in Merchandise Trade as a Share of GDP 2007-2014
    • Figure 1.6: Estimated Change in Net Exports as a Share of GDP 2007-2014
    • Figure 1.7: Estimated Change in Investment Expenditure as a Share of GDP, 2007-2014
    • Figure 1.8: Estimated Change in Government Expenditure as a Share of GDP, 2007-2014
  • INITIATIVES TO BOOST GROWTH
  • FROM TRADE REFORMS TO TRADE AND STRUCTURAL REFORMS
    • Figure 1.9: Perceptions of the Importance of Structural Reforms to Economic Growth
    • Figure 1.10: Priorities for Structural Reform
  • RAISING PRODUCTIVITY LEVELS
    • Figure 1.11: Demographics for APEC Members
  • IMPORTANCE OF VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING
  • RELIEVING INFRASTRUCTURE BOTTLENECKS
  • PROMOTING INCLUSIVE GROWTH
  • INCREASING FORMAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
  • Box 1: CHINA’S ECONOMY: UPS AND DOWNS, BUT STILL POSITIVE AND PROMISING
  • Box 2: THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY: A LOCOMOTIVE FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Chapter 2: Views On Promoting Inclusive Growth And Structural Reform
CONTRIBUTED BY MR. EDUARDO PEDROSA, PECC INTERNATIONAL SECRETARIAT

  • PRIORITIES FOR APEC LEADERS
    • Figure 2.1: Priorities for APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Manila
  • PROGRESS TOWARDS THE BOGOR GOALS AND THE FTAAP
  • APEC GROWTH STRATEGY
  • ADDRESSING CORRUPTION
  • CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • DIVERGING VIEWS ON PRIORITIES
  • DIVERGING VIEWS ON PRIORITIES: BY SECTOR
    • Figure 2.2: Sub-Regional Differences on Priorities
    • Figure 2.3: Sectoral Differences on Priorities
  • PROMOTING INCLUSIVE GROWTH
    • Figure 2.4: Ways to Promote Inclusive Growth: Views by level of development
    • Figure 2.5: Role of Connectivity in Promoting Inclusive Growth
  • VIEWS ON THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
    • Figure 2.6: Views on growth for the world economy
    • Figure 2.7: Views on growth for selected economies/ regions
  • RISKS TO GROWTH
    • Figure 2.8: Risks to Growth
  • FAILURE TO IMPLEMENT STRUCTURAL REFORMS
    • Figure 2.9: Sub-Regional Views on Failure to Implement Structural Reforms as Risk to Growth
    • Figure 2.10: A Sharp Fall in Asset Prices as a Risk to Growth 2011-2015
    • Figure 2.11: Shortage of Available Talent as a Risk to Growth 2011-2015
  • ARE WE PREPARED FOR MARKET VOLATILITY?
    • Figure 2.12: Rising interest rates in the US are a key risk for my economy
    • Figure 2.13: Market and exchange rate volatility is an urgent issue for APEC cooperation
    • Figure 2.14: Macroprudential policies in my economy are sufficiently robust to cope with volatility in capital markets
    • Figure 2.15: Safety mechanisms including the Chiang Mai Initiative and IMF are sufficient to deal with possible destabilizing outflows of capital from some economies in the region
  • PRIORITIES FOR STRUCTURAL REFORMS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC
    • Figure 2.16: Economies where structural reforms are most important
    • Figure 2.17: Importance of structural reforms for ‘own economy’ – by sub-region
    • Figure 2.18: Priority Issues for Structural Reform
    • Figure 2.19: Differences of Views on Priorities for Structural Reform
  • LABOR AND EDUCATION
    • Figure 2.20: Satisfaction with Education and Labor in the Asia-Pacific
  • SATISFACTION WITH THE PROVISION OF INFRASTRUCTURE
    • Figure 2.21: Levels of Satisfaction with Infrastructure: By sub-region
  • MAKING PROGRESS ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
    • Figure 2.22: Should APEC focus its work on trade policy to achieving an FTAAP?
    • Figure 2.23: Views on the Political Environment for Freer Trade
  • FACTORS AFFECTING ATTITUDES TOWARDS FREER TRADE
    • Figure 2.24: Sub-Regional Views on Factors Affecting Attitudes to Freer Trade
  • PERSPECTIVES ON ASIA-PACIFIC REGIONAL COOPERATION
    • Figure 2.25: Views on APEC 2007-2015
    • Figure 2.26: Views on APEC 2007
    • Figure 2.27: Views on APEC 2015
    • Figure 2.28: Views on Expanding APEC’s Membership
  • A RENEWED FOCUS ON QUALITY GROWTH

Chapter 3: Measuring Economic Integration In The Asia-Pacific Region
CONTRIBUTED BY DR. BO CHEN

    • Figure 3.1: Composite Index of Economic Integration
    • Table 1: Weights Used
    • Table 2: Comparison of 2011 and 2012 indices
  • ASIA-PACIFIC TRADE FLOWS
    • Figure 3.2: Intra-Regional Trade Flows
    • Figure 3.3: Intra-Regional Flows of Foreign Direct Investment
  • FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
  • TOURISM FLOWS
    • Figure 3.4: Intra-Regional Tourist Inflows (% of total)
  • CONVERGENCE INDEX
    • Figure 3.5: Convergence Index
  • DIVERGING INCOMES
    • Figure 3.6: Deviation of GDP Per Capita
    • Figure 3.7: GDP Per Capita Growth
    • Figure 3.8: Deviation Indicator: Urban resident ratio
    • Figure 3.9: Deviation Indicator: Share of non-agriculture in GDP
    • Figure 3.10: Deviation Indicator: Expenditure on education as a proportion of GNI
    • Figure 3.11: Deviation Indicator: Life expectancy

ANNEX A FOR CHAPTER 1: Structural Reforms As Drivers Of Growth And Inclusion

ANNEX B FOR CHAPTER 2: Views On Promoting Inclusive Growth And Structural Reform

Member Committees

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Discussion Forum

Going It Alone in the Asia-Pacific: Regional Trade Agreements Without the United States
Peter A. Petri (PIIE), Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center), Shujiro Urata (Waseda University) and Fan Zhai (Former Managing Director, China Investment Corporation)


The Linkage between Services and Manufacturing in the US economy
Sherry M. Stephenson, Senior Fellow, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development


Digital DNA: Disruption and the Challenges for Global Governance
Peter F. Cowhey (University of California, San Diego), 
Jonathan D. Aronson (University of Southern California)


Growth in a Time of Change
Pamela Mar, Director of Sustainability, Fung Academy | Fung Group


Why Connectivity is a starting point for real change
Pamela Mar, Director of Sustainability, Fung Academy | Fung Group


The TPP lives on – and Canada should be part of it
Hugh Stephens, Vice-chair, CANCPEC


After the TPP: What’s Next for Canada in Asia?
Hugh Stephens, Vice-chair, CANCPEC