State of the Region Report 2008

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State of the Region 2008-2009


Publications-SOTR-2008-WooThe US sub-prime mortgage crisis has turned into an international financial crisis but it is not yet certain that the ensuing global downturn will result in a severe recession in Asia. Asian economies have been hit as hard as industrialized economies by a sharp decline in financial asset prices and by the credit crunch. However, economic growth in greater China and parts of Southeast Asia remains positive, and many Asian governments have fiscal and monetary tools at their disposal to mitigate any further deterioration in their economies. This is not to say that there has been a “decoupling” of Asia from western industrialized economies. Indeed, the export outlook has dimmed considerably for major Asian economies, and the effects of falling export demand have already led to sharp employment losses. But Asian economies have relatively strong banking systems and large foreign reserves, which puts them in a much better position than in the 1997- 98 financial crisis. Even so, downside risks weigh heavily in the current forecast, which is predicated on the positive impact of the US and other liquidity injections taking effect in the first half of 2009, resulting in a modest recovery.

Contents


Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Asia Pacific Region and Economic Outlook

  • T1: Real economic growth and increase in consumer prices for PECC economies, 2007-2010 (%)

State of the Region 2008

  • Section 1: Profile of Respondents
  • Section 2: Regional Economic Outlook
  • Section 3: Regional Economic Integration
  • Section 4: Regional Institutions 
  • Section 5: APEC 

 A Composite Index of Economic Integration in the Asia Pacific

  • Major findings of the Composite Index of Asia Pacific Economic Integration 2008
  • Value of Composite Economic Integration Index and Ranking of Asia Pacific Economies, 1990 and 2005 
  • Technical Note 

Economic Outlook Data Tables


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Discussion Forum

Going It Alone in the Asia-Pacific: Regional Trade Agreements Without the United States
Peter A. Petri (PIIE), Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center), Shujiro Urata (Waseda University) and Fan Zhai (Former Managing Director, China Investment Corporation)


The Linkage between Services and Manufacturing in the US economy
Sherry M. Stephenson, Senior Fellow, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development


Digital DNA: Disruption and the Challenges for Global Governance
Peter F. Cowhey (University of California, San Diego), 
Jonathan D. Aronson (University of Southern California)


Growth in a Time of Change
Pamela Mar, Director of Sustainability, Fung Academy | Fung Group


Why Connectivity is a starting point for real change
Pamela Mar, Director of Sustainability, Fung Academy | Fung Group


The TPP lives on – and Canada should be part of it
Hugh Stephens, Vice-chair, CANCPEC


After the TPP: What’s Next for Canada in Asia?
Hugh Stephens, Vice-chair, CANCPEC

Project Team 2008

Editorial Committee:

Yuen Pau Woo (State of the Region Report Coordinator, President & CEO Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada)

Mark Borthwick (Director, US Asia Pacific Council)

Gary Hawke (Head, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand)

Charles E. Morrison (PECC Chair, President East-West Center, USA)

Jusuf Wanandi (Member, Board of Trustees, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia)

Soogil Young (President, National Strategy Institute, Korea)

Eduardo Pedrosa (Secretary General, PECC International Secretariat)