State of the Region Report 2013

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State of the Region 2013-2014

PECC State of the RegionThe global economy continues to grow at a moderate pace in spite of the uncertainties about economic prospects in a number of large emerging and developed economies. The Asia-Pacific region is forecast to grow at 3.5 percent this year and 3.9 percent in 2014. Emerging markets continue to drive growth in the region accounting for 2.6 and 2.7 percentage points of the region’s growth in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

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State of the Region Report 2013


Content:

i Message from the Co-Chairs of PECC

ii Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Regional Economic Outlook
by Eduardo Pedrosa with contributions from CNCPEC, JANCPEC, Sanchita Basu Das, Fidel Duque, and Esteban Restrepo

    • Chart 1.1: Asia-Pacific Economic Growth
  • The Asia-Pacific Outlook
    • Table 1.1: Revisions to Growth Forecasts for 2013
    • Table 1.2: GDP Growth Forecasts
  • United States
  • China
  • China’s Economy
  • Japan
  • Abenomics May Revive Japanese Economy
  • Southeast Asia
  • ASEAN Economic Community – A Work in Progress
  • Pacific South America
  • Pacific Alliance – Deep integration, deep expectations
  • Northeast Asia
  • Oceania
  • Transpacific Imbalances
    • Chart 1.2: Transpacific Imbalances
  • Trade Flows
    • Chart 1.3: Trade Growth
    • Chart 1.4: Exports to Major Markets
    • Chart 1.5a: Northeast Asia
    • Chart 1.5b: Southeast Asia
    • Chart 1.5c: Oceania
    • Chart 1.5d: Americas
  • Capital Flows
    • Chart 1.6: Capital Flows to Developing Economies
  • Rebalancing Aggregate Demand
    • Chart 1.7: Estimated Changes to Share of GDP 2013
  • Investment
    • Chart 1.8: Investment Share of GDP
    • Chart 1.9: Investment in Infrastructure 1990-2011
  • Barriers to Improved Infrastructure
    • Chart 1.10: Environment for Public-Private Partnerships
  • Structural Reforms Critical for Meeting Infrastructure Needs
  • Future Growth Prospects
    • Chart 1.11: Contribution of Net Exports to GDP Growth

Chapter 2: Survey of Asia-Pacific Opinion-Leaders
by Eduardo Pedrosa

  •  
    • Chart 2.1: Expectations for Growth of the World Economy over the next year
  • Views on the Economic Outlook
    • Chart 2.2: Growth Expectations for Selected Economies / Regions
    • Chart 2.3: Top 10 Risks to Growth
  • Priorities for APEC
    • Chart 2.4: Priorities for APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Bali
    • Chart 2.5: The WTO DDA as a Priority Issue for APEC Leaders (2007-2013)
  • The APEC Growth Strategy
    • Chart 2.6: Satisfaction with actions taken to promote the APEC Growth Strategy
  • Trade and Development
    • Chart 2.7: Trade and Development Issues
    • Chart 2.8: Trade and investment liberalization and facilitation have caused greater income inequality in my economy
    • Chart 2.9: The benefits of integration to my economy are limited due to supply-side constraints
  • Promoting Inclusive Growth
    • Chart 2.10: Priority Issues for Promoting Inclusive Growth
  • Development Goals
    • Chart 2.11: Aspirational Targets for APEC Members over the Next 15-20 Years
    • Chart 2.12: Developed and Emerging Economy Respondents Views on Aspirational Targets
  • Regional Institutions
    • Chart 2.13: Effectiveness of Regional Institutions / Processes
    • Chart 2.14: Views on APEC (by year)
    • Chart 2.15: Views on APEC (by sub-region, 2013)
  • Regional Economic Integration
    • Chart 2.16: What do you think is the likelihood of success in concluding the following proposed agreements over the next 3 years?
  • Time for a Regional Focus on Development

Chapter 3: Economic and Technical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific
Section 1 by Federico M. Macaranas
Section 2 by Michael G. Plummer

  • Section 1: Goodbye to Festina Lente
    • Chart 3.1: Sample Value Chains
  • Value Addition in the 2012 APEC SOM Report on Economic and Technical Cooperation
  • Ecotech Cooperation in Free Trade Agreements
  • SCE Ecotech Evaluation
  • Conclusion
  • Section 2: Lessons from Regional Aid for Trade
  • Assessing the Effectiveness of Aid for Trade
  • Regional Aid for Trade in Action in Asia
  • Lessons Learned
  • References

Chapter 4: Index Of Regional Economic Integration
by Chen Bo

  •  
    • Chart 4.1: Composite Index of Regional Economic Integration
  • Weights Used
    • Table 4.1: Comparison of 2009 and 2010 Indices
  • Asia-Pacific Trade Flows
    • Chart 4.2: Intra-Regional Trade Flows
  • Foreign Direct Investment
    • Chart 4.3: Intra-Regional Flows of Foreign Direct Investment
  • Tourism Flows
    • Chart 4.4: Intra-Regional Tourist Inflows (% of total )
  • Convergence Index
    • Chart 4.5: Convergence Index
  • Diverging Incomes
    • Chart 4.6: Deviation of GDP Per Capita
    • Chart 4.7: GDP Per Capita Growth
    • Chart 4.8: Deviation Indicator: Urban Resident Ratio
    • Chart 4.9: Deviation Indicator: Share of Non-Agriculture in GDP
    • Chart 4.10: Deviation Indicator: Expenditure on Education as a Proportion of GNI
    • Chart 4.11: Deviation Indicator: Life Expectancy

ANNEX A

ANNEX B

Member Committees

 

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Discussion Forum

The Linkage between Services and Manufacturing in the US economy
Sherry M. Stephenson, Senior Fellow, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development


 Digital DNA: Disruption and the Challenges for Global Governance
Peter F. Cowhey (University of California, San Diego), 
Jonathan D. Aronson (University of Southern California)


Growth in a Time of Change
Pamela Mar, Director of Sustainability, Fung Academy | Fung Group


Why Connectivity is a starting point for real change
Pamela Mar, Director of Sustainability, Fung Academy | Fung Group


The TPP lives on – and Canada should be part of it
Hugh Stephens, Vice-chair, CANCPEC


After the TPP: What’s Next for Canada in Asia?
Hugh Stephens, Vice-chair, CANCPEC