State of the Region Report 2013


State of the Region 2013-2014

PECC State of the RegionThe global economy continues to grow at a moderate pace in spite of the uncertainties about economic prospects in a number of large emerging and developed economies. The Asia-Pacific region is forecast to grow at 3.5 percent this year and 3.9 percent in 2014. Emerging markets continue to drive growth in the region accounting for 2.6 and 2.7 percentage points of the region’s growth in 2013 and 2014 respectively.


pdf State of the Region Report 2013 (3.10 MB)


i Message from the Co-Chairs of PECC

ii Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Regional Economic Outlook
by Eduardo Pedrosa with contributions from CNCPEC, JANCPEC, Sanchita Basu Das, Fidel Duque, and Esteban Restrepo

    • Chart 1.1: Asia-Pacific Economic Growth
  • The Asia-Pacific Outlook
    • Table 1.1: Revisions to Growth Forecasts for 2013
    • Table 1.2: GDP Growth Forecasts
  • United States
  • China
  • China’s Economy
  • Japan
  • Abenomics May Revive Japanese Economy
  • Southeast Asia
  • ASEAN Economic Community – A Work in Progress
  • Pacific South America
  • Pacific Alliance – Deep integration, deep expectations
  • Northeast Asia
  • Oceania
  • Transpacific Imbalances
    • Chart 1.2: Transpacific Imbalances
  • Trade Flows
    • Chart 1.3: Trade Growth
    • Chart 1.4: Exports to Major Markets
    • Chart 1.5a: Northeast Asia
    • Chart 1.5b: Southeast Asia
    • Chart 1.5c: Oceania
    • Chart 1.5d: Americas
  • Capital Flows
    • Chart 1.6: Capital Flows to Developing Economies
  • Rebalancing Aggregate Demand
    • Chart 1.7: Estimated Changes to Share of GDP 2013
  • Investment
    • Chart 1.8: Investment Share of GDP
    • Chart 1.9: Investment in Infrastructure 1990-2011
  • Barriers to Improved Infrastructure
    • Chart 1.10: Environment for Public-Private Partnerships
  • Structural Reforms Critical for Meeting Infrastructure Needs
  • Future Growth Prospects
    • Chart 1.11: Contribution of Net Exports to GDP Growth

Chapter 2: Survey of Asia-Pacific Opinion-Leaders
by Eduardo Pedrosa

    • Chart 2.1: Expectations for Growth of the World Economy over the next year
  • Views on the Economic Outlook
    • Chart 2.2: Growth Expectations for Selected Economies / Regions
    • Chart 2.3: Top 10 Risks to Growth
  • Priorities for APEC
    • Chart 2.4: Priorities for APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Bali
    • Chart 2.5: The WTO DDA as a Priority Issue for APEC Leaders (2007-2013)
  • The APEC Growth Strategy
    • Chart 2.6: Satisfaction with actions taken to promote the APEC Growth Strategy
  • Trade and Development
    • Chart 2.7: Trade and Development Issues
    • Chart 2.8: Trade and investment liberalization and facilitation have caused greater income inequality in my economy
    • Chart 2.9: The benefits of integration to my economy are limited due to supply-side constraints
  • Promoting Inclusive Growth
    • Chart 2.10: Priority Issues for Promoting Inclusive Growth
  • Development Goals
    • Chart 2.11: Aspirational Targets for APEC Members over the Next 15-20 Years
    • Chart 2.12: Developed and Emerging Economy Respondents Views on Aspirational Targets
  • Regional Institutions
    • Chart 2.13: Effectiveness of Regional Institutions / Processes
    • Chart 2.14: Views on APEC (by year)
    • Chart 2.15: Views on APEC (by sub-region, 2013)
  • Regional Economic Integration
    • Chart 2.16: What do you think is the likelihood of success in concluding the following proposed agreements over the next 3 years?
  • Time for a Regional Focus on Development

Chapter 3: Economic and Technical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific
Section 1 by Federico M. Macaranas
Section 2 by Michael G. Plummer

  • Section 1: Goodbye to Festina Lente
    • Chart 3.1: Sample Value Chains
  • Value Addition in the 2012 APEC SOM Report on Economic and Technical Cooperation
  • Ecotech Cooperation in Free Trade Agreements
  • SCE Ecotech Evaluation
  • Conclusion
  • Section 2: Lessons from Regional Aid for Trade
  • Assessing the Effectiveness of Aid for Trade
  • Regional Aid for Trade in Action in Asia
  • Lessons Learned
  • References

Chapter 4: Index Of Regional Economic Integration
by Chen Bo

    • Chart 4.1: Composite Index of Regional Economic Integration
  • Weights Used
    • Table 4.1: Comparison of 2009 and 2010 Indices
  • Asia-Pacific Trade Flows
    • Chart 4.2: Intra-Regional Trade Flows
  • Foreign Direct Investment
    • Chart 4.3: Intra-Regional Flows of Foreign Direct Investment
  • Tourism Flows
    • Chart 4.4: Intra-Regional Tourist Inflows (% of total )
  • Convergence Index
    • Chart 4.5: Convergence Index
  • Diverging Incomes
    • Chart 4.6: Deviation of GDP Per Capita
    • Chart 4.7: GDP Per Capita Growth
    • Chart 4.8: Deviation Indicator: Urban Resident Ratio
    • Chart 4.9: Deviation Indicator: Share of Non-Agriculture in GDP
    • Chart 4.10: Deviation Indicator: Expenditure on Education as a Proportion of GNI
    • Chart 4.11: Deviation Indicator: Life Expectancy



Member Committees


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Pacific Currents

Global value chains: From fruitful discussions to meaningful actions
Juan Navarro, Associate Faculty, Royal Roads University

Climate change in SOTR
Christopher Findlay, Tilak Doshi and Eduardo Pedrosa

Digital Technologies, Services and the Fourth Industrial Revolutions
Submitted by Jane Drake-Brockman, Christopher Findlay, Yose Rizal Damuri and Sherry Stephenson 

COVID-19 has Exposed Major Gaps in our Social Safety Nets: In a Post-COVID World Will these Gaps be Closed?
Hugh Stephens
Vice Chair, CANCPEC; Distinguished Fellow, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; Executive Fellow, School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary

 Multilateral Cooperation is a Safeguard against Pandemics
Rebecca Fatima Sta Maria
Executive Director, APEC Secretariat

International cooperation during COVID-19
Sungbae An
Senior Research Fellow, Department of International Macroeconomics and Finance, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)

Drastic measures to stop spread of COVID-19 are necessary
Charles E. Morrison
Adjunct Fellow and Former President of the East-West Center; Former Co-Chair, PECC

ASEAN-China cooperation in time of COVID-19 pandemic
Jusuf Wanandi
Vice Chair, Board of Trustees, CSIS Foundation; Former Co-Chair of PECC