State of the Region

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State of the Region 2014-2015

Sate of the region 2014The Asia-Pacific region is forecast to grow at around 3.8 percent over the next two years before moderating to around 3.5 percent in 2018-2019. While far from the heady rates of above 5 percent growth during the pre-Global Economic Crisis period it represents a steady if unremarkable recovery from the depths of dark days of the 2008-2009.

 

 

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icon State of the Region Report 2014-2015


Content:

i Message from the Co-Chairs of PECC

ii Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Prospects for Growth in the Asia-Pacific Region
Contributed by Eduardo Pedrosa

  • Future Drivers of Growth
  • Changing Balance between Emerging and Advanced Economies?
    • Figure 1.1: Asia-Pacific GDP growth
  • United States
  • Box 1: The US Economy
  • China
  • Box 2: China’s Economy for 2014: Steady and Sound Growth with Reform and Innovation
  • Japan
  • Box 3: Japan: The Progress of Abenomics
  • India
  • Box 4: India: Middle Class Strikes Back
  • Southeast Asia
    • Figure 1.2: Balance of aggregate demand in selected ASEAN economies
  • Box 5: ASEAN Economy Post-2015: Issues, Challenges, Policies
  • Pacific South America
  • Oceania
  • Northeast Asia
  • The External Sector
  • Current Account Balance
    • Figure 1.3: Asia-Pacific trade growth
    • Figure 1.4: Export growth
    • Figure 1.5: Import growth
    • Figure 1.6: Transpacific current account balance
    • Figure 1.7: Asia-Pacific vs. Global Growth
    • Figure 1.8: Emerging and advanced economy growth in the Asia-Pacific
  • The Future of Growth in the Asia-Pacific
  • Balanced Growth
  • Consumption
    • Figure 1.9: Estimated changes to share of GDP 2014 (percentage points change from 2007 baseline)
  • Investment
    • Figure 1.10: Average household expenditure in Asia-Pacific economies
    • Figure 1.11 Investment as a percentage of GDP
  • Innovation and Growth
    • Figure 1.12: Contribution of total factor productivity to Asia-Pacific growth (weighted by GDP US$)
    • Figure 1.13: Asia-Pacific GDP growth (weighted average)
    • Figure 1.14: Contribution of TFP to Asia-Pacific GDP growth (weighted average)
    • Figure 1.15: Contribution of ICT capital to Asia-Pacific GDP growth (weighted average)
    • Figure 1.16: Contribution of Non-ICT capital to Asia-Pacific GDP growth (weighted average)
    • Figure 1.17: Contribution of labor quantity to Asia-Pacific GDP growth (weighted average)
    • Figure 1.18: Contribution of labor composition to Asia-Pacific GDP growth (weighted average)
    • Figure 1.19: Asia-Pacific economies ranking on global innovation index’s input-sub-index
    • Figure 1.20: Gross domestic expenditure on R&D (% of GDP)
    • Figure 1.21: Graduates in science and engineering (%)
    • Figure 1.22: University/industry collaboration
    • Figure 1.23: Firms offering formal training (% of firms surveyed)
    • Figure 1.24: Asia-Pacific economies innovation input sub-index score (0-100)
  • The Future of Growth in the Asia-Pacific

Chapter 2: Can RCEP and the TPP be path ways to FTAAP?
Contributed by Peter A. Petri and Ali Abdul Raheem

  • APEC and FTAAP
    • Figure 2.1: Timeline of regional initiatives by APEC economies
  • The Pathway Strategy
    • Figure 2.2: Comparison of TPP and RCEP objectives
  • How the Pathways Might Work
    • Figure 2.3: Membership of possible Asia-Pacific trade agreements
    • Figure 2.4: Income gains from alternative agreements (% of GDP)
  • The Benefits
  • Conclusions
    • Figure 2.5: Income gains from alternative agreements (2025 estimates)
  • References

Chapter 3: Perceptions of Growth and Integration in the Asia-Pacific
Contributed by Eduardo Pedrosa

  • Figure 3.1: Top 5 priorities for APEC Leaders to address at their upcoming meeting in Beijing (by sub-region)
  • Figure 3.2: Top 5 priorities for APEC Leaders to address at their upcoming meeting in Beijing (by sector)
  • Whither the WTO?
  • Future of Growth a Key Issue
  • Economic Outlook
  • Risks to Growth
    • Figure 3.3: Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months compared to the last year for the following economies/ regions
    • Figure 3.4: Top 10 risks to growth
  • Lack of Political Leadership – A Shared Concern
    • Figure 3.5: Top 10 risks to growth (by sub-region)
    • Figure 3.6: Top 10 risks to growth (by sector)
  • Future Growth and Consumption in the Asia-Pacific
    • Figure 3.7: Drivers of growth over the next 5-10 years
    • Figure 3.8: Consumer expenditure in the Asia-Pacific
  • The Future Consumers
  • APEC Growth Strategy
    • Figure 3.9: Satisfaction with efforts to improve the quality of growth in the region
    • Figure 3.10: Future drivers of growth
  • Drivers of Future Growth for Individual Economies
  • Future Growth in the Asia-Pacific
  • Trade Liberalization in the Asia-Pacific
    • Figure 3.11: Critical factors for the future of Asia-Pacific growth
  • The Rule of Law
  • Workforce Training and Mobility
  • The Future of Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation
    • Figure 3.12: Whither India in the Asia-Pacific
    • Figure 3.13: APEC membership as a top 5 priority
    • Figure 3.14: Views on the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)
  • Towards an FTAAP
  • How likely are any of the regional trade deals to reach a conclusion ?
  • Ambivalence Reigns
    • Figure 3.15: Likelihood of RTAs reaching a conclusion within next 3 years
    • Figure 3.16: Undecided, uninformed, or unwilling
  • Need for Outreach
  • Priority Issues for Regional Trade Agreements
    • Figure 3.17: Priority issues for regional trade deals
    • Figure 3.18: Priority Issues for regional trade deals
  • The Future of APEC
  • Southeast Asians More Positive on APEC
    • Figure 3.19: APEC is as important or more important today compared to 1989 when it was created
    • Figure 3.20: Views on APEC over time
  • North American Ambivalence
  • APEC’s Importance for South America
  • APEC: New Challenges and Agenda Ahead for Asia-Pacific Cooperation

Chapter 4: Annual Report of the Composite Index of Economic Integration in the Asia-Pacific Region: 1990 ~2011
Contributed by Bo Chen

  • Figure 4.1: Composite index of regional economic integration>
  • Figure 4.2: Comparison of 2010 and 2011 indices
  • Asia-Pacific Trade Flows
    • Figure 4.3: Intra-regional trade flows
    • Figure 4.4: Intra-regional flows of foreign direct investment
    • Figure 4.5: Intra-regional tourist inflows (% of total)
    • Figure 4.6: Convergence index
  • Foreign Direct Investment
  • Tourism Flows
  • Convergence Index
    • Figure 4.7: Deviation of GDP per capita
    • Figure 4.8: GDP per capita growth
  • Diverging Incomes
    • Figure 4.9: Deviation indicator: urban resident ratio
    • Figure 4.10: Deviation indicator : share of non-agriculture in GDP
    • Figure 4.11: Deviation indicator: expenditure on education as a proportion of GNI
    • Figure 4.12: Deviation indicator: life expectancy

ANNEX A

ANNEX B

Member Committees

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Discussion Forum

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Jusuf Wanandi, Co-Chair PECC

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Andrew Elek, Australian National University

Andrew Elek, Australian National University

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Amitendu Palit, Head (Partnerships & Programmes) and Senior Research Fellow,
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