State of the Region Report 2006

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State of the Region 2006-2007


Publications-SOTR-2006-Woo The region's GDP is set to expand by 5.0 percent this year, and possibly 4.3 percent next year, while some economies will be spectacularly above that. There has been no international conflict in the region for more than a quarter century, although in some areas there is internal unrest. Despite this positive environment, the region faces a number of continuing and emerging challenges that, unless effectively addressed, could substantially change the future outlook. Some of these are associated with the previous decades of success in economic reform and trade liberalization. Growing inequalities and resurgent protectionist sentiments remain challenges that need to be addressed if the economies of the region are to have the political and public support for further reform and market opening.




Contents


Message from the Chairman of PECC

Glossary

Executive Summary

1.0 The Asia Pacific Economic Outlook

  • Growth will slow in 2007 - as expected
    • Chart 1: Real GDP Growth
    • Chart 2: Confidence in the Asia-Pacific economic outlook
  • Trans-Pacific Imbalances to Improve
  • Deficits at a Peak
    • Chart 3: Current Account Balance
    • Chart 4: Export Growth
  • U.S. Domestic Demand to Weaken
  • China Still Soaring
  • Japanese Economy on Track
  • Private Consumption to Surge
  • Modest Slowing Elsewhere
    • Chart 6: CPI Inflation 



2.0 Regional Dynamics:Challenges for Asia Pacific Cooperation

  • 2.1 Challenges to Global and Regional Integration
  • Inequality a Threat to Continued Integration
  • Benefits of Globalization Need to Be Spread
  • Marginalization Adds to International Tensions
  • 2.2 Short and Long-Term Risks
  • Resource Sutainability
    • Chart 7: The Risk of High Energy Prices
  • Regional Views Diverge on Other Risks
  • The Threat of Avian Flu
  • Longer-Term Risks
    • Chart 8: Risks to Economic Growth
  • Threat of Protectionism
    • The Doha Round and Its Alternatives
    • The Asia-Pacific Noodle Bowl
    • Coverage of PTAs of APEC member exports to other APEC economies
  • Relations among Large Economies
  • 2.3 Policy Priorities for Regional Cooperation
    • Chart 9: Policy Priorities for Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation
  • APEC Activities - need for reform?
  • Chart 10: APEC's Most Important Activities


3.0 The Future of Regional Cooperation

  • 3.1 Sub-Regional Integration
  • East Asian Regionalism Rising
  • East Asian Regionalism: From Integration to Identity?
  • Financial Cooperation Deepening
  • First Steps to a Common Asian Currency?
  • Integration in the Americas at an Impasse
  • 3.2 Membership in APEC
  • 3.3 Trans-Pacific Ties
  • APEC Should Embrace Discussions on New Regional Architecture



Annex 1: Economic Outlook Data Tables

Annex 2: Survey Results

Annex 3: Pacific Economic Outlook Forecasters

Annex 4: PECC Member Committees

 

 

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Jusuf Wanandi, Co-Chair PECC

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Andrew Elek, Australian National University

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Project Team 2006

Editorial Committee:

Yuen Pau Woo (State of the Region Report Coordinator, President & Co-CEO Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada)

Gary Hawke (Head, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand)

Charles E. Morrison (PECC Chair, President East-West Center, USA)

Jusuf Wanandi (Member, Board of Trustees, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia)

Soogil Young (President, National Strategy Institute, Korea)

Additional Contributors:

Mark Borthwick (Director, US Asia Pacific Council)

Masahiro Kawai (Head, Office of Regional Integration, Asian Development Bank)

Eduardo Pedrosa (Secretary General, PECC International Secretariat)

Robert Scollay (Head, APEC Study Centre, University of Auckland)

Hadi Soesastro (Executive Director, Centre for Strategic and International Studies)