Peter A. Petri, non-resident Senior Fellow with the East-West Center and a Professor of International Finance at Brandeis University

Republished from the East West Center

(This analysis originally appeared in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Oct. 16, 2011 as part of a monthly series on regional Asia Pacific issues leading up to the APEC leaders’ meetings in Honolulu in November)

In the last half century, world trade has grown twice as fast as output and helped to lift the majority of the world’s people from poverty—a feat unimaginable a generation ago. When APEC leaders meet in Honolulu next month, they will represent countries that account for half of world trade. Can APEC help to keep the engine humming for another half century?

The trade engine is more important than ever, but the rules that govern trade are less certain. Efforts to strengthen global rules—the World Trade Organization’s Doha negotiations—have collapsed. Beset by domestic concerns, the United States and Europe have retreated from leadership on trade. And the new Asian giants have yet to step up. Read more…

Plenary: Asia Pacific Regional Outlook and Concurrent Session: Enabling 21st Century Services in the Asia Pacific

Prepared by Youth delegates Angela Zhang Yiou (HK), Muhan Cheng (CT) and Jihye Seon(KO), 29September2011

The First Plenary session was moderated by Mr. Zou Mingrong. The first speaker Roberto Cardarelli delivered the Overview and Forecast of the IMF on global economy. During his speech, Mr. Roberto highlighted that slower growth was expected around the world. However, Asia will still exhibit relatively good performance with strong domestic demand. He also mentioned “Two Channels”: trade channel and financial channel. Mr. Roberto concluded that Asia still would have solid growth but monetary tightening and economic rebalancing are required. Read more…

Professor Christopher Findlay is Executive Dean of the Faculty of the Professions at the University of Adelaide and Vice-Chair of AUSPECC
Republished from the East Asia Forum

Commentators on these pages have been pondering the implications of the Fukushima explosion on Japan’s energy policy and its strategy for international purchases. Samuels suggests an extensive re-examination of energy policy in Japan and a possible shift toward renewable energy. Vivoda pointed to a scenario in which the share of nuclear power in Japan’s total electricity consumption could fall. This share previously accounted for 30 per cent of consumption, and even as little as 12 months ago the plan was to raise this to 50 per cent.

An increase in the share of gas and coal in the short to medium term and a switch to renewable energy sources in the longer term is now expected: Peter Drysdale referred to the growth of LNG imports this year and its likely further growth in 2012. That nuclear power is not so cheap when the costs of meeting safety or dealing with incidents are taken into account is the key driver behind these developments, as Len explains. Still, expectations about a switch to gas, at least in the short term, are a source of anxiety in Japan. The main gas suppliers to Northeast Asia are Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Russia — nothing comes from the Pacific. There are also expectations that two major suppliers — Malaysia and Indonesia — will switch to net imports. Consequently, obtaining more gas without paying a higher price is not going to be so straightforward. And there is also the possibility of having to deal with a smaller number of suppliers. Read more…

Don Gunasekera, Senior Economist, CSIRO, Canberra

The 2004 Asian tsunami illustrated the disproportionate impact that natural disasters have on poorer communities. More recent natural disasters in New Zealand, Japan, Australia and the US have shown that even well-to-do communities can be significantly hard hit by the impact of catastrophic and severe weather events. Preparing for natural disasters has many facets. They can range from adaptive response measures to the use of modern technologies to provide early warnings. A measure which is often talked about and seldom practiced is disaster risk management. In this regard, the recent mid-term review by the UNISDR of the Hyogo Framework for Action to substantially reduce disaster losses by 2015 is timely. A key message emerging from the UNISDR mid-term review is the need for economies to undertake proper disaster risk assessments that could help them to draw up better risk management plans which can be implemented by effective institutions with adequate resources in a well coordinated manner.

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Masahiro Kawai
Dean and CEO, Asian Development Bank Institute

and

Ganeshan Wignaraja
Principal Economist, Office of Regional Economic Integration, Asian Development Bank

The inability to conclude the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Development Round has spawned a proliferation of bilateral and plurilateral free trade  agreements (FTAs) across the globe. While East Asia is a relative newcomer to FTAs, the region has seen a dramatic increase in the number of such agreements  in recent years. The explosion of FTAs in East Asia, led by the large economies of Northeast Asia—the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK)—is tied to the need to support sophisticated production networks through continued trade and investment liberalization, while also serving as a defensive response to the spread of FTAs elsewhere in the world.

A lively debate over the impact of FTAs on business in the region has resulted from their proliferation (see Baldwin 2006, Chia 2010). Data from East Asian  exporters on FTA utilization were lacking prior to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) firm-level multi-country survey conducted in 2007/08. The survey results  suggest that FTAs are indeed bolstering trade among firms, despite some concerns expressed over restrictive rules of origin (ROOs), particularly as economic recovery takes hold in the wake of declining trade volumes and nascent protectionism triggered by the recent global economic crisis. Governments can  facilitate the increased use of FTAs by actively disseminating information to firms on existing FTAs and adopting best practices in designing future FTAs, including ROOs.

East Asian economies are using FTAs to aggressively pursue their individual and collective trade strategies, leading to the expansion of advanced production networks across the region with hubs in Japan and the PRC. Rather than complicating efforts toward a Doha Round agreement, a region-wide FTA can contribute  to laying the foundation for such an agreement.

This brief is set out as follows. It begins by discussing East Asia’s emergence as a global factory and the spread of FTAs. It then examines varieties of national FTA strategies in Northeast and Southeast Asia. The brief goes on to analyze information on FTA use, impediments, and ROOs based on the ADB multi-country survey. Finally, it explores a possible way forward, highlighting short-term measures as well as a region-wide FTA for the medium term. Read more…

Julius Caesar Parrenas, PhD
Senior Advisory Fellow, Institute for International Monetary Affairs (IIMA)1
posted from: http://www.iima.or.jp/pdf/newsletter2010/NLNo_37_e.pdf

The recent G20 and APEC meetings in Seoul and Yokohama underscored the importance of structural reforms. While G20 leaders struggled over the way forward to achieve sustained global economic recovery, APEC leaders went ahead to launch work toward a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), possibly through the expansion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Embedded in the G20 and APEC leaders’ statements are references to a key issue that will influence the success of current efforts to sustain global recovery and advance free trade.

Annexed to the G20 statement is a document entitled the “Seoul Development Consensus for Shared Growth,” which laid out the framework for future work on “infrastructure, private investment and job creation, human resource development, trade, financial inclusion, growth with resilience, food security, domestic resource mobilization and knowledge-sharing.” The APEC statement referred to a strategy for achieving high-quality growth that is balanced, inclusive, sustainable, innovative and secure, described in detail in a separate document entitled “The APEC Leaders’ Growth Strategy.”

At the heart of this growth strategy is a renewed push for greater balance between domestic and external demand within economies, which is in turn key to addressing huge trade imbalances that have significantly contributed both to the current malaise afflicting the global economy and growing frictions over trade-related issues. This growth strategy hinges on structural reforms to address deep-seated problems that have emerged in the course of one of the longest periods of strong economic performance the world has ever seen. Read more…

APEC 2011: Can the US deliver?
Andrew Elek, ANU and member of AUSPECC
This article is cross-posted from the East Asia Forum website

The most important objective of international economic cooperation in 2011 is to conclude the Doha Round. The United States has the influence to do that if it is prepared to show political initiative and have realistic expectations of others.

The APEC group can also provide leadership within the G20 to tackle global problems. APEC’s Committee on Trade and Investment (CTI) can begin to set out a strategy on how the WTO might operate beyond the Doha Round. Bringing the WTO up to date with the 21st century world of international commerce is an essential dimension of cooperation to narrow development gaps. Read more…

Yuen Pau Woo
President and CEO, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada
From: http://www.asiapacific.ca/editorials/presidents-view

Prime Minister Harper and three of his senior cabinet ministers spent much of the last week at two major international gatherings in Asia. The Seoul G20 meeting on 11-12 November was followed by the annual APEC Leaders’ Summit in Yokohama. The close proximity of these two meetings and their overlapping mandates raise important questions about the rapidly changing structure of global governance and Canada’s place in it. In light of Ottawa’s recent failure to secure a seat on the United Nations Security Council, the issue of Canada’s place in regional and global groupings has come into sharper focus.

Read more…

Senator Daniel Inoye
Chair, U.S. Senate Appropriation Committee
APEC Promotes Stability in the Asia-Pacific

YOKOHAMA, JAPAN (Nov. 12, 2010) – Speaking yesterday at the 2010 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Yokohama, Japan, U.S. Senate Appropriation Committee Chairman Daniel K. Inouye (D-Hawai‘i) said the meeting comes at a time when “the interdependence among the world’s economies have reached a level never seen before.”

Inouye said APEC springs from a “foundation of peace and stability [that has] made it possible for countries with a history of conflict to come together.” He also looked ahead to APEC 2011, which will be hosted by the U.S. in Honolulu, Hawai’i, next November. “We are honored by President Obama’s selection, and his confidence that we will carry out our duty as America’s host city with distinction, deference to diplomacy, and always, with the spirit of aloha,” Inouye said. “Hawai‘i’s people are the faces of APEC. We have been shaped by the history, culture and events of this region.”

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Yuen Pau Woo
President and CEO, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, and Coordinator, State of the Region Report
State of the Region 2010-2011

The world economy has been on a roller coaster ride since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. A deep plunge in economic output through the greater part of 2009 was followed by a sharp upturn, only to settle now into what can be described as a period of great uncertainty. Recovery in the US and Europe has been spotty, and the risk of another financial crisis remains present. Contrasting policy responses across the Atlantic further complicate the outlook, and underscore the differences among leading nations not only in prognosis but also in the type and degree of international coordination that is needed for sustained recovery.

Read more…